21 February 2008
Carling Cup Final Preview
Cwoff takes an extensive look ahead to the first cup final of the season as the much-maligned League Cup sees two of the big three London clubs square off.
Chelsea are still in the FA Cup and Champions League yet are probably out of the running for the league, but the holders are a team who spurn no opportunity to win a trophy and have the added incentive of playing against one of their most hated rivals.
Tottenham remain one of the favourites for the UEFA Cup and are slowly repairing their dreadful first half of the league campaign. Though they covet a Champions League spot, failure to qualify for the UEFA Cup again would be disastrous and victory here would instantly ensure that does not come to pass.
For the Chelsea fans is it more than a trophy - it is avoiding embarrassment of losing to Tottenham.
For the Tottenham fans it is the trophy they crave and the affirmation of both a golden future and their belief that they belong amongst the elite.
This Sunday, 3pm; Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea.
The Teams
As the second half of the season gets under way and European competition returns, having a cup final now is perhaps not the optimum time. Chelsea will have had four days rest and preparation, Tottenham only two - not exactly good omens for two teams packed with fit players or an even contest.
However it is mid-season and one would hope that the conditioning of both sets of players should ensure that both are capable of performing at their best.
The rumour is that Paul Robinson will regain his place in goal ahead of Radek Cerny. This is perhaps slightly unfair given that the latter has made only one real error so this suggests that the idea was always to let Robinson feel the pressure of performance on selection and see how he reacts when ‘winning’ his place back.
The much-improved defence depends as it always does on the fitness of Ledley King. The captain has been in and out of the team for most of the season as his knee problems refuse to disappear permanently. He has not played for some time but is in training and will likely be fit enough to lead his team out.
Next to him will be Jonathan Woodgate - the first time this pairing will have played together for the club. They also form what is arguable the most talented central defensive partnership in the Premiership. Both read the game like they have already read the screenplay; making interceptions, tackles and blocks with languid ease. Both are also strong, good in the air and have excellent distribution. King is arguable the better passer with both feet, has brilliant close control and is fast enough to catch practically any forward. It has been stated before on this site that the ideal partnership matches one strong, aerially commanding centreback with a faster, more cultured, reading centreback. King clearly fits into the second category and has dovetailed well in the past with the commanding Dawson (who is unlikely to be fit). Woodgate however is also more of a cultured defender and partnering the two could upset that dynamic. It should be noted however that having two centrebacks of such quality in the same team is practically unheard of - Woodgate and Rio Ferdinand at Leeds was perhaps the last time and their partnership could hardly have been called a failure.
The fullback positions are less clear. First choices would probably be Gareth Bale at left and Alan Hutton at right however the talented Welshman is out for the season along with the only other natural left back, Benoît Assou-Ekotto and the talented Spanish youngster Yuri Berchiche not yet ready for first team action. Of late, Pascal Chimbonda has been playing there ahead of Young-Pyo Lee; neither of whom are left-footed. Hutton and Chimbonda are both tall, strong and fast and match up well with Ramos’ preference in his wide players in both defence and attack. The height issue particularly should not be overlooked given the size of the wide midfield players ahead of them, the height of Drogba and Anelka and their preference for pulling wide to receive lofted balls from the fullbacks. There is the possibility that new Brazilian signing, Gilberto could play however it would make for an unlikely début.
Midfield and attack have only a single position not guaranteed. On the left, Steed Malbranque has been superb all season as a wriggling ball of touch and invention. Though I have doubts as to his long-term position on the left wing - Ramos likes naturally footed wingers with pace and skill - his play has provided a creative alternative to the direct running on the other flank.
Aaron Lennon started the season slowly and has in the last few weeks started to come into form. His pace and control are a challenge for any fullback and his distribution and passing, vastly underrated. This season he has also changed his shooting technique and will benefit from striking down and through the ball with the edge of his first metatarsal rather than ’slapping’ it with his instep.
Central midfield will of course feature Jermaine Jenas. I said at the start of the season that this was the year that would define him as a footballer. I then said when Ramos arrived that the one player that he would most likely turn into a true world class footballer was Jenas. He has practically ever attribute you could wish for in a midfielder, a template which was up until this season an impression rather than the reality that has since emerged. He will be asked to attack, defend, intercept, prompt and score. His partner is the only position of contention with the contender being Tom Huddlestone, Didier Zokora, Kevin Prince-Boateng, Jamie O’Hara and Teemu Tainio.
Each has their own strengths and weaknesses; Huddlestone is the best passer in the squad, a canon of a shot but is still too large to be a quick, pressing midfielder. Zokora is that pressing midfielder who can also dribble however his passing and shooting are his weak points. Boateng is still getting used to English football but, like Jenas has the full gamut of attributes though Jenas gets through more defensive work without accruing yellow cards as quickly. O’Hara is tenacious, passes well, shoots and fears no one. Tainio is a harrying player and probably the best natural tackler amongst the candidates. He has great energy, decent passing and can finish when needed.
This position will be the toughest judgement call Ramos has to make and unfortunately every one of these players except Boateng played 90 minutes on Thursday. Tainio played brilliantly in the semi-final demolition of Arsenal however picking either he or Zokora would pit a pressing, defensive midfielder against the likes of Makelele, Mikel and Essien - players who all play the pressing game better than they do. Playing Huddlestone may counter that by exploiting the space created by the movement of the front five and largely bypassing the main defensive strength of Chelsea in central midfield, he also possesses great close control but it is inconsistent. It should also be noted that Tainio played well against the short passing, movement-based midfield of Arsenal which is ideal for his energetic, reading, pressing form of play. Chelsea are a different proposition in midfield though and more commonly use Anelka or Drogba to hold the ball up for the midfield to complement the attack and have little need for intricate passing and movement in the centre of the park.
This suggests that Huddlestone would be the logical choice to partner Jenas however I believe that Tainio will get the nod for two reasons. He is clearly in form and complements Jenas well by freeing him slightly to join the attack which he does to such great effect. Also, Ramos likes the option of bringing Huddlestone off the bench to introduce different angles of attack and he general performes well as a substitute. Personally, I would prefer the choice of Huddlestone from the bench replacing an ineffective Tainio rather than the other way round should Huddlestone not be able to compete with Essien, Makelele et al drawing Jenas further back and limiting the attacking options.
The attack itself is obvious; Keane and Berbatov; the best partnership in the Premiership. One thing to point out however, is that Dimitar Berbatov has yet to prove that he is capable of performing on the big occasion. Last season when these sides met at White Hart Lane in the league, Keane, King and Lennon were the start turns. In the FA Cup, although he scored in the first game, his contribution diminished (his removal was a tactical error by Jol though) and the replay was lost. Including the UEFA Cup defeat to Ramos’ Sevilla and the massively atmospheric semi final against Arsenal it should be said that the big events have so far passed this magnificent player by. A player who thrives so much on adoration and his standing as the most gifted at his club, he will know what to expect from the atmosphere at Wembley. He may not be needed to perform if the usual suspects of Jenas, Lennon and King give their predictable big-game performances but if he does perform to his potential, Tottenham could well find themselves out of sight before the hour with the Bulgarian having written the first indelible chapter in his Tottenham history.
Probable team:
Robinson, Chimbonda, Hutton, King, Woodgate, Malbranque, Lennon, Tainio, Jenas, Keane, Berbatov
Chelsea are less easy to predict (especially for a Tottenham fan) however the pre-match rumours surround the apparent likely exclusions of captain John Terry and Frank Lampard. Whether this happens or not will probably remain uncertain until the team is actually announced however Grant is clearly a man not easily influenced and with both players returning from injury it would make sense that they start on the bench.
In goal will be Peter Cech. Though still a superb keeper he has not been quite the commanding force that he was before his head injury against Reading. Lately he has even caught the highly infectious blunder disease that seemingly every goalkeeper gets at some stage of their career.
Centrebacks will likely be the same as those who played in the Champions League; Alex and Ricardo Carvalho. Both are strong but will not need to be against non-confrontational strikers. Neither have great pace and will not need it against Berbatov and Keane. What they will need however is the ability to read a partnership of two highly skilful, creative and deadly strikers with the fast Jenas and lightning Lennon running from deep and wide respectively. As usual, the quality of the Chelsea defence will depend greatly on organisation from set pieces, cover from their fullbacks and prevention in midfield over the raw skill that characterises the Tottenham central pairing. Alex’s quality from freekicks and long range should also be noted particularly against a team who have made conceding great, long-range goals a near-art form.
Juliano Belletti at right back has integrated into the team seamlessly ahead Paulo Ferreira who has just signed a new contract. Belletti also has an excellent shot having already scored from long range against Tottenham this season in the league. On the other flank is the world’s finest defensive left back, Ashley Cole. It is sad to note that such a player makes more news for his unsavoury ‘private’ life and treatment of women but like David Beckham (and for completely differing reasons) he too has the ability to ignore the attention and perform on the pitch. Fast, skilful and tactically clever, he has managed to dominate the best opposition of his era (Christiano Ronaldo) much in the same way that Roberto Carlos continually dominated David Beckham whenever they met for club or country. Even before he left Arsenal though his attacking skill was on the wane. He still has the tools to attack well but neither the license nor the practise to be the genuine left sided force he once was. This does however suite both Mourinho’s and Grant’s, Chelsea.
Much like under Mourinho, Grant’s Chelsea pick the formation to play to their strengths; strong defensive midfielders, deep running attacking midfielders and a single, physically dominant centre forward. Consequently they will likely employ a nominal 433 formation which will be a 451 most of the time. This allows two of Mikel, Essien and Makelele to play and dominate the centre of the park, shielding their defence and giving a platform for the wide forwards to attack the flanks and the spare central midfielder (Ballack or Lampard) to take a position high up the pitch and feed off the centre forward. Having this base also allows all four of the attacking players to be fluid in their positioning since there are four players (two midfielders, both fullbacks) capable of compensating for any gaps that form.
It is a formation first and foremost designed to stifle the opposition and provide a platform for a patient, attritional attack. Stifling the Tottenham attacking five will not be easy and is unlikely to be a 90 minute achievement. Neither will breaking down a well-organised, highly skilled Tottenham defence and playing to their traditional weaknesses will be an astute tactic. Long range shots and set plays are both Chelsea specialities and Tottenham weaknesses. Chelsea have the players and formation to directly challenge the problems Tottenham try to pose and the weapons to hit them where they are weakest.
Probable team:
Cech, Cole, Belletti, Carvalho, Alex, Essien, Makelele, Ballack, Malouda, Cole, Drogba
Current Form
Just when the competition started getting tougher, the Juande Ramos effect started to be felt at Tottenham with a dominating 2-0 win away to previously unbeaten (at home) Manchester City. Next came a semi-young Arsenal team who were dominated but not defeated in the first leg then dominated and destroyed in the second. Two recent games against Manchester United have seen them unluckily put out of the FA Cup and exceedingly unluckily get only a draw in the league.
The Tottenham team are fit, determined and highly talented. They continue to improve under Ramos and combine a high-tempo, all-team pressing defence with arguably the best attack in the league after Manchester United and Arsenal.
Chelsea are unbeaten in sixteen matches and have won fourteen of them. Though not the most fluent in attack despite the array of talent they are still a formidable team defensively and with a spirit that seems to have lost none of its potency since the removal of its Portuguese creator.
The great team defence is complimented by some superb attacking individuals who have proven themselves time and again. While a criticism could be labelled at their frequent reliance on that moment of individual brilliance, it is only a criticism when that brilliance does not arrive. Invariably it does.
The Supporters
The atmosphere at the League Cup final is the one part of the competition which excels above the others. With a higher percentage of tickets going to the fans than at the FA Cup, the noise should be of the sort originally envisaged when the stadium first appeared on the architect’s drawing board.
As for which set of supporters will have a greater influence there can be no doubt that it is the Tottenham fans who have a greater desire for victory. They have not won a trophy since the 1998/9 League Cup and Chelsea’s motivation more than anything will be to not lose to a hated rival.
This is clearly shown in the relative prices paid for ‘passed on’ tickets. Chelsea seats are going for around 250GBP whereas Tottenham tickets are allegedly selling for 1000GBP or more.
The desire of victory for the Tottenham fans verges on the fervently desperate. They will likely buy up any spare tickets whether they are in the Tottenham or Chelsea sections and the noise they will make will be hard to ignore.
Managers and Mentalities
Ramos and Grant are both new to the Premiership, this season. Both replaced popular predecessors and both inherited fine squads primed for success. Grant clearly had the larger boots to fill but has done exceptionally well in keeping the spirit of the Mourinho era intact while barely changing the style of play.
Ramos has revolutionised the Tottenham team. It was always a fine ensemble of talent but one that at their best seemed capable of performing only for the first twenty minutes of matches before repeatedly letting the opposition assert themselves. The Ramos Tottenham aims to dominate for the whole match. When they score, they see the opportunity to score again rather than assume they have broken the back of the opposition and take the opportunity to rest. Like the best teams in the league they realise the importance of crushing the opposition when you are on top, not just trying to beat them when they let you (take note, Liverpool).
Grant’s Chelsea are designed to dominate possession and score from incessant pressure while stifling the opposition with their superb defensive midfielders and positional defence. Ramos’ Tottenham believes they can score against anyone, at any time and have inherited their new manager’s indomitable self-belief; a hallmark of every great manager.
It is Grant’s immovable object against Ramos’ irresistible force.
Key Match-ups
Lennon versus Cole
As was mentioned above, Ashley Cole is probably the best defensive left back in World football. He will however be aiming to ‘put in his pocket’ an in form player who every season adds to the list of full backs he has left “traumatised”. Both are fast and Cole has the intelligence to neutralise Lennon’s skill. Lennon does however roam inside and Cole will have a decision to make whether or not to track him or leave him for Makelele/Essien and watch for Hutton. Given Chelsea’s lack of a wide, positional defence, the later scenario is the likeliest which could give Lennon the opportunity to run from inside to out, behind Cole for Hutton, Keane, Berbatov or Jenas to pick him out. Regardless of Cole’s pace, if Lennon gets past him the quality of delivery will be the only remaining factor.
Tainio versus Ballack
Assuming Lampard does not start and Tainio does, the latter will be tasked with stopping Chelsea’s attacking central midfield threat. He will also have to intercept and block the inevitable barrage of long range shots from a variety of sources. Ballack is also more of a playmaker than his English counterpart and again Tainio will have to be at his best to prevent him from prompting the play by moving freely from flank to flank and the short interplay with Drogba.
Drogba versus Woodgate
In all likelihood it is Woodgate who will be tasked with the job of marking Drogba and in particular competing with him in the air. It may be a case of damage limitation with the latter but one of Woodgate’s main attributes is reading the attack and intercepting it. Even should Drogba dominate the encounter it will free Ledley King to use his own reading and considerable pace to marshal the rest of the defensive effort.
Makelele versus Jenas
Tottenham’s own attacking central midfielder will run all game long. He will have to against two of the most accomplished defensive midfielders in World football. Makelele will be roaming the positions that Jenas typically surges into and he will look to prevent him from getting to the ball, deflecting or tackling him if he does. Jenas does however operate all over the attacking third including the flanks and Makelele, like Cole with Lennon will have to decide whether to track him wide or leave him to Cole. Given the inclusion of Essien it is likely that Makelele will try to track Jenas wide however should the two find themselves one on one, Makelele might quickly find out what so few others seem to have noticed, namely that Jenas can be alarmingly fast.
Keane and Berbatov versus Alex and Carvalho
No matter who plays in defence for Chelsea they will be up against the best attacking partnership in the Premiership and how they handle them will largely determine the outcome of the match. Neither Keane nor Berbatov are especially quick but they are both brilliant dribblers, visionary passers and lethal in front of goal. Either one on their own poses questions that are found nowhere else in the league and together they provide more than the sum of their parts. Carvalho and Alex (or Terry if he plays) will not want to be isolated two on two and will look to their fullbacks and particularly Makelele and Essien to shield them and simplify their roles to guarding the edge of the 18 yard box. Because of this it is possible that Chelsea may not seek to commit too many players forward for fear of the Tottenham counter attack which is exceedingly fast and varied. Subjecting the centrebacks to Keane, Berbatov, Lennon and Jenas high up the pitch could prove disastrous.
The Prediction
If Chelsea are to win, several things need to happen. First, Tottenham have to spurn the chances they will surely create. An attack that potent will not be kept quiet for the whole match however they could be restricted in the ball they receive and hence chances they make. But they will make chances at some stage and if both Berbatov and Keane are in particularly clinical form, even a good defensive Chelsea performance could see them needing to score twice to take it to extra time.
The Chelsea midfield need to be more than the collection of great defensive players they are on paper and play to that billing by neutralising, Jenas, Malbranque and Lennon thereby isolating the front two - it is better to try and deny Berbatov and Keane the ball than to deal with them once they have it and Chelsea’s midfield is designed precisely to do that. If they can manage that, Tottenham may be largely restricted to the accurate distribution of Robinson to Berbatov which would play right into Alex and Carvalho’s strengths.
The most likely area for Chelsea to attack is from long range with Lampard, Alex, Belletti, Drogba, Wright-Phillips all capable of striking the ball brilliantly and from set plays; a Chelsea speciality and Tottenham’s bête noire. It is not that Chelsea cannot (or indeed will not) create from open play and get in behind Tottenham, just that the Chelsea attack is coming up against a side with exceptional individuals - particularly readers - who excel at intercepting and deflecting attacks. Chelsea have the players to be creative but if Tottenham can halt that part of their game they also have great ability in long-range shooting and free kicks to fall back on.
If Tottenham are to win then they will need to overwhelm Chelsea. It is how Ramos’ teams play and it is how the team plays under Ramos. They have a high-tempo pressing defence which lasts the full match (unless they do not recover from the UEFA Cup on Thursday) and the opposition rarely has much time in possession and even less time on the ball. Indeed the last team to dominate possession against them was Arsenal in the second leg of the semi final. Tottenham knew the opposition had to attack and it allowed them to defend cleverly and pick their moment to counter. Consequently they were extremely dangerous with almost every attack they made.
Creatively, Tottenham have many weapons. A huge onus will be on Makelele and Essien to stop the fullbacks running from deep, the wingers running inside and out, Jenas running from deep and either Keane or Berbatov dropping back. That is a lot of movement to contain but these are two of the best defensive midfielders in the game.
Chelsea will probably hope to keep the game narrow and crowded in midfield, stop the ball getting wide and picking up any late movement of the Tottenham players. If they can do this and pressurise the Tottenham defence they should score and frustrate their opposition into losing their attacking shape. With a strong performance from the central midfield and fullbacks, Chelsea should win 1-0 or 2-0 with goals from Drogba, Joe Cole or Ballack.
If Tottenham’s tempo gives them the enough of the ball or if their strikers take their chances then they could win with anything from a scrappy encounter to a blow-out. With enough ball and less-than-perfect performances from any of the Chelsea back four Tottenham could take the upper hand and create chances all game long for any of their five attacking players.
Tottenham 3 - 1 Chelsea
Nice review, well balanced and with the correct prediction at the end
Chelsea only ever win by 1 goal (occasionally 2) and that could well prove to be their fatal flaw against a Spurs team designed to annihilate the opponents defence. With not much happening in the Thursday game against Slavia, Spurs will be fit, motivated and victorious.
COYS!
This is one of the best football articles I’ve ever read!
Thanks Paddy, very kind!
(Have a read of some of the others on this site, they’re not all that bad either :P)